Ben Mitchell
Director of Advocacy & Policy, Foundation for Tacoma Students
2024 was a big election year in Washington. At the state level we had two new candidates running for Governor for the first time since 2012, as well as a large number of open seats in the state legislature. We also had four ballot initiatives put to voters, one of which was consequential for education funding. And locally we had an open race for Pierce County Executive.
There are a few pivotal races across the state where the outcome is still to be determined, but for the most part the dust has settled. Now that we have a little distance from election day we can take stock of the outcomes and do some prognosticating as to what it all means for education policy and politics in Washington:
- What does upholding Washington’s capital gains tax mean for additional tax reform?
- What can we glean from the stated priorities of Washington’s next Governor?
How will the combination of large-ish Democratic majorities and several new lawmakers affect the dynamics in the state legislature?
We also have to face the reality of the significant changes in power in DC brought by the presidential and congressional elections. We don’t exist in a political or policy vacuum up here in our corner of the country, but as our Executive Director Dr. Ervin put it last week: “we know that true transformation begins at the state and local level. Our community’s power to create positive impact remains steadfast – rooted in unity, shared purpose, and an unwavering commitment to protect the future of our students, families, and schools.”
Capital gains tax upheld and potential momentum for progressive taxation
The Foundation for Tacoma Students endorsed the No on I-2109 campaign, which was focused on beating back a repeal of our state’s capital gains tax. Our stance was straightforward: this is a progressive tax with the incidence falling on a very narrow slice of people who have the means and then some to pay. And the things it pays for – namely child care and early learning services – are a big need and are important for our collective well-being.
And to our great relief 64% of Washington voters shot down the repeal effort and chose to keep the 7% tax on profit from the sale of stocks and long-term assets exceeding $262,000. Now the question is if this should be interpreted narrowly as merely support for a very targeted tax, or more broadly as support for a more progressive tax structure overall in Washington.
It’s an important interpretive question because in September our state’s official nonpartisan economic and revenue forecasters announced that they project overall tax revenue for Washington to drop by about $39 million through 2029 from what they had previously assumed. Budget writers in the legislature are required by law to put together a balanced budget based on projected revenues. That means that unless this downward revision to projected revenue reverses – which is possible – or taxes are raised on somebody, then lawmakers are going to have to make spending cuts in 2025.
That’s not something that Democrats in the legislature and the Governor’s office will want to do, and there are options on the table for new taxes focused on the wealthy that might get a political shot in the arm after the failure of I-2109:
- A wealth tax is an option that Senator Noel Frame and Representative My-Linh Thai have worked on. In 2024 they sponsored legislation in the House and Senate that would have levied a 1% tax on intangible assets like stocks and bonds in excess of $250 million. Their legislation did not go anywhere in 2024, but 2025 could be different.
A payroll tax is another option, which the City of Seattle imposes at the municipal level. This is a tax paid by employers that is based on the salaries of their employees. The idea is that employers who have a certain number of highly-paid employees pay the tax.
There might be an avenue for these or other tax levers, and we’ll see how this shakes out in 2025.
State executives and what it means for education policy
Attorney General Bob Ferguson will succeed Jay Inslee as Washington’s next Governor, beating former Congressman Dave Reichert 56% to 44%. Governor-elect Ferguson will continue the uninterrupted streak of Democratic Governors since 1985.
Our hope at FFTS is that Governor-elect Ferguson prioritizes education and workforce development in a similar way to how Governor Inslee prioritized climate change as a signature issue. The education page on his campaign website is robust, but the breadth of topics in his plan makes it difficult to get a read on what his top-tier education policy issues will be.
Most of the items in Governor-elect Ferguson’s education plan represent ambitious proposals for new investments and programs in K-12 and higher education that various interest groups have talked about for years. But one item that jumps out as being a little different is the statement that he will “breakdown education silos by reforming the office of superintendent of public instruction.” The blurb in the plan describes how Governor-elect Ferguson and Superintendent Reykdal would both like to eliminate the Superintendent of Public Instruction as an elected position, but then the rest of it speaks to streamlining services, aligning work across agencies, eliminating duplication of efforts, increasing system accountability and evaluation, and breaking down silos.
Perhaps this is a window into Governor-elect Ferguson’s approach to governing. As an organization that believes that the biggest structural barrier to achieving our 2030 Goal is the disconnect between high school, higher education, and workforce systems, this kind of stuff is music to our ears.
The other important executive race to our work is the reelection of Chris Reykdal to a third term as the Superintendent of Public Instruction. This is the executive for Washington’s K-12 education system, and the reelection of Superintendent Reykdal augurs for continuity and steadiness at OSPI. We can say for sure that he will try to work with lawmakers to increase school funding in 2025, based on OSPI’s $3 billion budget request to address rising costs for special education, transportation, and operating costs. Superintendent Reykdal has also championed expanding career and technical education and dual credit programs, which we agree have a lot of potential. And we also align on the goal to eventually see free breakfast and lunch available to every student in our public K-12 system.
A makeover in the state legislature
Locally, all of the current lawmakers from the 27th, 28th and 29th legislative districts who were up for reelection won their races. This includes Speaker of the House Laurie Jinkins, Representative Jake Fey, and Senator Yasmin Trudeau, all representing Tacoma. As well as Senator T’wina Nobles and Representative Mari Leavitt who have both focused on K-12 and higher education policy and hold leadership positions in their respective caucuses.
But our local continuity is a bit of an outlier. Going into election day we knew that there would be nine state senators and 11 representatives across the state who would not be returning. Even though it looked extremely likely that Democrats would maintain their sizable majorities – which we now know they will – new people come with new priorities, backgrounds, and approaches to the work that will affect the dynamics in the legislature.
All the turnover also raised the possibility that Democrats could gain a few seats and add to their majorities in the legislature, which currently stand at 58-40 in the House and 29-20 in the Senate. If Democrats gain one seat in each chamber and get 59 votes in the House and 30 votes in the Senate they will have a 60% supermajority of seats in both chambers.
The big implication of Democrats getting a supermajority would be a marginally more progressive tilt in the legislature. Every session sees progressive priorities die at procedural deadlines, and more Democrats would make life easier for them and would mean more Democratic priorities make it over the finish line in a session.
The more tangible and boring implication is that issuing state debt requires a 60% supermajority. The state’s construction and transportation budgets usually require issuing debt, and so the supermajority requirement means those budgets have to come together under bipartisan terms most of the time. But if Democrats have 60% of the legislature by themselves, and if they all stick together, then they don’t need to bargain with Republicans to issue debt, and we can assume that more transportation spending will go to things like transit, bike lanes and sidewalks.
To recap: Democrats need to pick up one Senate seat and one House seat to get to the 60% supermajority. Several races are on a knife’s edge, and haven’t been called yet. (All results are as of 12:00pm on Nov. 13. You can find updates here):
- 14th Legislative District House and Senate seats
- This one has been fascinating to watch. In 2023 a federal judge ruled that legislative district boundaries in the Yakima Valley violated the voting rights of Latinos. That ruling led to new legislative district boundaries that looked like they would reshape the political landscape in Washington. The 14th legislative district in particular was redrawn in a way that shifted it from reliably Republican to potentially more favorable for Democrats, and Democrats were hoping that they could win both House seats and the Senate seat. But the results track with the national shift of working class Latino voters towards Republicans.
- Republican Curtis King is leading Democrat Maria Beltran by about 1,200 votes for the state Senate seat.
- Republican Den Manjarrez is leading Democrat Ana Ruiz Kennedy by more than 500 votes for one of the House seats
- Republican Gloria Mendoza has been declared the winner in the other House race, beating Democrat Chelsea Dimas.
- 17th Legislative District House and Senate seats
- Republicans might hold the Senate seat. Republican Paul Harris is running to replace Republican Lynda Wilson who is retiring and is ahead of Democrat Marla Keethler by more than 2,000 votes.
- Republicans might hold a House seat. Republican David Stuebe is ahead of Democrat Terri Niles by more than 900 votes.
- Democrats sat out the other House race. Given how close the other two races are in this district, it’s surprising that Republican Kevin Waters ran unopposed for the other House seat.
- 10th Legislative District Senate seat
- Republicans might hold this seat. Republican incumbent Ron Muzzall is ahead of Democrat Janet St. Clair by just shy of 2,000 votes.
- 18th Legislative District Senate seat
- Democrats might gain this seat. Democrat Adrian Cortes leads Republican Brad Benton by about 260 votes.
- 26th Legislative District House seat
Democrats might gain this seat. Democrat Adison Richards leads Republican Jesse Young by almost 2,800 votes.
If the current leads hold it will net out to one pick-up in the Senate and one pick-up in the House for Washington Democrats. Just enough for the 60% supermajority.
But not enough for a two-thirds supermajority. That is a big prize for any party because amending the state constitution requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers, followed by a statewide vote of the people. This high threshold makes controversial changes to our state constitution extremely hard to pull off, and is the reason why something like overhauling our tax system to include an income tax does not have a realistic path forward currently.
A Democratic Executive for Pierce County
Current Pierce County Council Chair Democrat Ryan Mello will assume the role of County Executive, beating Republican State House member Kelly Chambers 51% to 49%. The win by Councilmember Mello represents a shift in County government, as he will replace outgoing Republican Executive Bruce Dammeier. Democrats have had a majority on the County Council for several years, so this partisan change at the Executive level means we will break out of our divided government situation and see more political alignment between the Council and the Executive.
New faces and notable reelection in Washington's congressional delegation
Washington state has 10 seats in the House of Representatives in DC, currently held by eight Democrats and two Republicans. The partisan split of our congressional delegation will remain the same, but there will be two new House members replacing retiring members.
In the 6th Congressional District, which includes Tacoma, retiring Democratic Congressman Derek Kilmer will be replaced by current Democratic State Senator Emily Randall. Senator Randall has served in the State Senate since 2019. She served a stint as Chair of the Higher Education and Workforce Development Committee, and also earned a seat on the Senate budget committee, known as “Ways and Means.” In Olympia Senator Randall was a leader on policy to make higher education tuition more affordable, and also to support students with non-tuition costs. It remains to be seen what issues Congresswoman-elect Randall will prioritize in DC, and we look forward to working with her on federal policy that will support our 2030 Goal here at home.
The 5th Congressional District encompasses a large piece of eastern Washington, from Canada to Oregon and includes Spokane, Pullman, and Walla Walla. Republican Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers represented the district beginning in 2005, but did not seek reelection. She will be replaced by Republican Michael Baumgartner, who had previously served in the Washington State Senate.
The other eight House members of Washington’s congressional delegation, as well as Senator Maria Cantwell were all re-elected to their seats. The only race that was close was in the 3rd Congressional District where Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez beat Republican Joe Kent. This is a seat that had been held by a Republican for 10 years until 2022, so the win is notable. Even though she’s only been in Congress for two years, Congresswoman Gluesenkamp Perez has national notoriety for being a rare Democrat that represents a more rural and conservative district.
Five thoughts on federal education policy
First and foremost, between the Project 2025 plan, the Republican Platform, and President-elect Trump’s often contradictory statements, it’s very hard to project forward what might happen with education policy. So take the next four points with a big grain of salt. These are observations, not predictions.
President-elect Trump has said he wants to close down the U.S. Department of Education. But he can’t do it unilaterally; it requires an act of Congress. If Republicans do get a majority in the House of Representative, which it looks like they will, then they could theoretically follow through on eliminating the Department of Education. But there are a lot of legal, political, and logistical hurdles to clear in order to do it, and closing down the Department of Education would have to be very high on the priority list for Republicans for it to happen.
What looks more possible is an effort to shift functions of the Department of Education to other departments, and then cut funding to the Department of Education. That isn’t solace to us as an organization that believes that we need a renewed focus on education policy at the federal level that includes scaling up funding and accountability for public education.
The other federal education policy issue that is prominent with Republicans are school choice programs, exemplified by the spread of “education savings accounts” or vouchers in several states. These programs seem to be popular where they exist, and this could be where Republicans look for their biggest education win at the federal level.
- Workforce policy and a child tax credit expansion could be sneaky opportunities. There is a bipartisan move away from the “college for all” paradigm of 15 or so years ago, and there could be investments in apprenticeships, credentials, short-term training and non-college pathways. Republicans also talk about financial support for families with children, and the child tax credit program is something that Both Democrats and Republicans have said they want to expand.
